Gold at €3,500? Why Some Analysts Say It’s Closer Than You Think

Soaring demand, geopolitical strife, and fears of dollar debasement are fueling bold new forecasts. But could gold really top €3,500($4,000) an ounce — and stay there?

Gold prices have climbed to record highs in 2025, recently topping €2,800 per ounce — a 29% surge since January. Now, a growing number of analysts say the rally may be far from over. Citing inflation fears, central bank buying, global instability, and unsustainable debt levels, some forecasts now see gold reaching €3,500 an ounce within the next year.

Wall Street heavyweights like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have revised their price targets sharply upward. JPMorgan now expects gold to hit €3,500 by mid-2026, while Goldman sees €3,200 by year-end — with upside potential if the economy weakens. Gold’s historic role as a safe haven appears to be back in fashion.

A Central Bank Buying Frenzy

Much of gold’s recent strength is being driven by central banks. In 2024, global central bank gold purchases hit a record 1,086 metric tons, and buying remains elevated this year. Governments, particularly in emerging markets, are thinking of diversifying away from the U.S. dollar amid concerns over sanctions, rising U.S. debt, and long-term dollar strength.

According to the World Gold Council, central bank demand averaged more than 700 tons per quarter in early 2025. This ongoing shift — sometimes called “de-dollarization” — reflects a growing appetite for assets that are outside the control of any single nation.

Bank of America estimates that central banks currently hold about 10% of their reserves in gold and could eventually raise this to 20–30%, providing long-term price support.

Geopolitical Instability Lifts Gold’s Appeal

Alongside official sector demand, gold has also benefited from persistent global tensions. The ongoing war in Eastern Europe, U.S.–China friction, and fresh instability in the Middle East have driven demand for safe-haven assets. Tariffs, trade restrictions, and erratic foreign policy decisions have further added to uncertainty.

As JPMorgan analysts noted, elevated geopolitical risk is “limiting the appeal of traditional U.S. assets,” and funneling flows into gold. Each new crisis — whether a military escalation or financial shock — has sent gold higher.

Inflation and Debt Concerns Boost Bullish Case

Beyond geopolitics, fundamental macroeconomic factors are driving gold’s rise. Inflation, though off its 2022 peak, remains elevated in many economies. Investors remain concerned about long-term inflationary pressure fueled by pandemic-era spending and mounting government debt.

The U.S. national debt has soared to nearly $37 trillion in 2025, raising fears of dollar debasement and fiscal instability. “Gold is the only asset that isn’t someone else’s liability,” said one strategist at WisdomTree, referencing gold’s unique role in uncertain times.

In addition, expectations of interest rate cuts are bolstering the metal. As central banks shift from tightening to easing to support slowing economies, real interest rates could fall — historically a bullish signal for gold.

Forecasts Call for Higher Highs

Here’s a summary of recent institutional forecasts for gold as of mid-2025:

While most firms are bullish, some — like Citi — urge caution. Their analysts argue that gold’s rally could reverse if global growth accelerates and geopolitical risks ease.

Risks to the Rally

Despite strong fundamentals, risks remain. Chief among them: a slowdown in central bank demand. If official purchases taper off, a major source of support could vanish. Likewise, if the global economy avoids a downturn, the safe-haven appeal of gold could diminish.

A strong rebound in equities or a surge in bond yields could also weigh on gold by increasing opportunity costs for investors. And if inflation continues to moderate without a recession, the justification for €3,500 gold may weaken.

Citi warns that if trade tensions subside and risk appetite returns, prices could fall back below €2,500. They remain among the few forecasting a correction.

Conclusion: A Golden Milestone in Sight?

Gold has regained its luster as the world grapples with inflation, conflict, and debt. For now, the forces pushing prices higher remain firmly in place: central bank accumulation, geopolitical strife, dovish policy expectations, and investor anxiety about the future of the dollar.

While risks could derail the rally, many experts say gold’s climb toward €3,500 is not just plausible — it’s increasingly likely. The question may no longer be if gold hits €3,500, but when.