It has been a relatively lackluster year so far for gold.
As of Friday, the precious metal was down about 2% for the year. What does the year-to-date (YTD) performance project for the remainder of 2015? Here is a look.
Broad Look at 2015 Against Other Years
The first graphic is the current 2015 performance against prior years. As shown, 2015 is relatively weak compared to prior years. The returns, though, are all over the place.
Remaining Time from Mid-October to The End of the Year
Now for a look at the performance of gold from the middle of October to the end of the year.
Unsurprisingly, the returns from day 290 (mid-October) to the end of the year (day 365 or 366) varies widely.
Some more analysis is needed to see whether the performance of gold through day 290 is indicative of where gold will go through the end of the year (day 365).
The Correlation
Here is a look at the correlation of the performance of gold through 290 compared with the performance of gold through day 365.
Interestingly, the two returns are positively related.
If this correlation holds for the remainder of 2015, then the fall/winter return could be between +4% and -6%.
This view, of course, leaves out lots of uncertainty on the horizon, including a weakening China, a very tense Syrian situation, and a Europe not performing well.
